Sören Lubitz Photography/Moment via Getty Images Why chaos theory matters A hallmark of chaotic systems is predictability in the short term that breaks down quickly over time, as in river rapids or ecosystems.Ĭhaos can explain why climate is predictable while weather isn’t. Chaos is somewhere between random and predictable. Randomness, like cards or dice, is unpredictable because we just don’t have the right information. But what about the weather two weeks from now? Or a year from now? You can’t predict your next poker hand – if you could, they’d throw you out of the casino – whereas you can probably guess tomorrow’s weather. What’s the difference between a pack of cards and the weather? Chaos is different from randomĪs a complex systems scientist, I think a lot about what is random. But if you separate a pendulum halfway down by adding another axle, the swinging becomes wildly unpredictable. Nothing could be more predictable than the swinging pendulum of a grandfather clock. And that compounding is what leads to chaos.Ī shocking series of discoveries in the 1960s and ‘70s showed just how easy it is to create chaos. Usually those little details don’t matter, but sometimes tiny differences have consequences that keep compounding. Who doesn’t meet in the crowd if the train arrives a few seconds sooner? urbancow/E+ via Getty Images
